Once I pick my main players, I'll figure out which positions I'm weakest at, and pick high-upside guys at those positions to try and strengthen them. I want all my positions to have strength and honor.
First things first, however. Jermichael Finley is likely to be available in the 10th round, so there's no need to pick him in the 9th.
My weakest positions will be QB and TE in my estimation. Andy Dalton is the best available after the 9th pick, and he's available at 12, so I'll slot him in there. Jared Cook is next best after Finley, so I'll grab him at 11.
I am now free to take the best available WR at the 9th pick, which is Kenny Britt. With 4 WRs now, there is little reason to pick a 5th when we only start 2. Likewise with RBs, I have 3, plus a backup for injuries and bye weeks. I'll also pick a handcuff to the most risky RB I have that I can easily handcuff, which in this case is Marcel Reese for Darren McFadden. I'll plan on taking him in the last round.
That only leaves 3 spots: 13, 14, and 15. It's hard to predict which defenses will be good the next year, but once they present themselves, they stay pretty consistent, so when I have the luxury of extra roster space, I like to take on 2 DSTs - Denver in 13 and New England in 14. That leaves a kicker in Round 15. Here is the final expected lineup:
1. Calvin Johnson
2. Chris Johnson
3. Randall Cobb
4. Darren McFadden
5. Colin Kaepernick
6. Torrey Smith
7. LeVeon Bell
8. Montee Ball
9. Kenny Britt
10. Jermichael Finley
11. Jared Cook
12. Andy Dalton
13. Denver DST
14. New England DST
15. Kicker
16. Marcel Reese
Sunday, July 7, 2013
Monday, June 24, 2013
Draft Planning Series: Standard 10 Team 7th Position Episode 2 - Best ADP Lineup
I'll start quickly, so stay with me. Stay with me.
First, to determine how many positions to take in the beginning to Maximize. I take the number of starting positions, excluding DST and K. I count RB as the Flex player unless the league is very deep, and I add 1 backup RB and WR because of the heavy usage and scarcity of those positions. I never want to be short RB or WR.
In the particular league we're working on, we're looking at 1 QB, 4 RB, 3 WR, and 1 TE as our first 9 picks. We should simulate all the different combinations of those 9 picks with who should be available at the time of our selections, and pick the order that provides the most projected points.
The key part to drafting is to look at the entire draft as a whole, not to take each pick as a separate event. Doing so puts you in control of your surroundings, not the other way around. Ambition can be a virtue if it drives you to excel.
After I put in the legwork, the following order comes out, with the following players.
1: WR - Calvin Johnson
2: RB - Chris Johnson
3: WR - Randall Cobb
4: RB - Darren McFadden
5: QB - Colin Kaepernick
6: WR - Torrey Smith
7: RB - LeVeon Bell
8: RB - Montee Ball
9: TE - Jermichael Finley
The idea is to grab a player right before a big drop off. That is obvious for our 1st and 5th pick, but there is a significant drop off after all of these picks. Don't fight with the picks; I didn't modify the projections at all.
When we look at the entire draft, we can maximize the entire draft, rather than selling out on one pick when another one would be almost as good and giving us a better deal later on.
For example, the biggest drop off is after Round 2 with Jimmy Graham at TE. However, the deals later on for RB are not as good as Jermichael Finley all the way down at 9, so we need to grab the RB here since we want so many of them.
As you can see, this isn't some cookie-cutter strategy like RB-RB-WR, or WR-QB, because every year ADP and projections are different. The more work you put in, the better chance you are the one at the end saying, "Roma Victor!"
First, to determine how many positions to take in the beginning to Maximize. I take the number of starting positions, excluding DST and K. I count RB as the Flex player unless the league is very deep, and I add 1 backup RB and WR because of the heavy usage and scarcity of those positions. I never want to be short RB or WR.
In the particular league we're working on, we're looking at 1 QB, 4 RB, 3 WR, and 1 TE as our first 9 picks. We should simulate all the different combinations of those 9 picks with who should be available at the time of our selections, and pick the order that provides the most projected points.
The key part to drafting is to look at the entire draft as a whole, not to take each pick as a separate event. Doing so puts you in control of your surroundings, not the other way around. Ambition can be a virtue if it drives you to excel.
After I put in the legwork, the following order comes out, with the following players.
1: WR - Calvin Johnson
2: RB - Chris Johnson
3: WR - Randall Cobb
4: RB - Darren McFadden
5: QB - Colin Kaepernick
6: WR - Torrey Smith
7: RB - LeVeon Bell
8: RB - Montee Ball
9: TE - Jermichael Finley
The idea is to grab a player right before a big drop off. That is obvious for our 1st and 5th pick, but there is a significant drop off after all of these picks. Don't fight with the picks; I didn't modify the projections at all.
When we look at the entire draft, we can maximize the entire draft, rather than selling out on one pick when another one would be almost as good and giving us a better deal later on.
For example, the biggest drop off is after Round 2 with Jimmy Graham at TE. However, the deals later on for RB are not as good as Jermichael Finley all the way down at 9, so we need to grab the RB here since we want so many of them.
As you can see, this isn't some cookie-cutter strategy like RB-RB-WR, or WR-QB, because every year ADP and projections are different. The more work you put in, the better chance you are the one at the end saying, "Roma Victor!"
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Draft Planning Series: Standard 10 Team 7th Position Episode 1 - Introduction
Have you ever felt lost at a draft, or scrambled to figure out who to pick, only to discover seconds after you made your pick that you overlooked something crucial? If you have, then you need to train more before entering the Colosseum, and this draft planning academy is for you
This is a series that will focus on taking your team from joining the league through the draft. I divide the process into the following steps:
1. Projections
2. Determining Best ADP Lineup
3. Sleepers, Defenses, and Kickers
4. Contingency Plans
5. Draft Implementation
The first league I'll take you through is a standard scoring ESPN league with:
1 QB
2 RB
1 Flex
2 WR
1 TE
1 DST
1 K
Pretty easy, right? To get our feet wet this year, I'll skip the first step for this league, and just use the footballguys rankings.
Next post will determine the best ADP lineup according to those strict projections, and once we're finished with all our plans, I'll do a mock draft and show you how it turned out. Later, I'll take you through a couple pay leagues I'm in (I don't pretend to be a man of the people, but I do try to be a man for the people).
It's easy when you have a firm plan in place when drafting, and I usually have a really good idea what my team will look like before I even make my first pick.
"What we do in preparation, echoes during the draft." - Fantasy Football Maximus
This is a series that will focus on taking your team from joining the league through the draft. I divide the process into the following steps:
1. Projections
2. Determining Best ADP Lineup
3. Sleepers, Defenses, and Kickers
4. Contingency Plans
5. Draft Implementation
The first league I'll take you through is a standard scoring ESPN league with:
1 QB
2 RB
1 Flex
2 WR
1 TE
1 DST
1 K
Pretty easy, right? To get our feet wet this year, I'll skip the first step for this league, and just use the footballguys rankings.
Next post will determine the best ADP lineup according to those strict projections, and once we're finished with all our plans, I'll do a mock draft and show you how it turned out. Later, I'll take you through a couple pay leagues I'm in (I don't pretend to be a man of the people, but I do try to be a man for the people).
It's easy when you have a firm plan in place when drafting, and I usually have a really good idea what my team will look like before I even make my first pick.
"What we do in preparation, echoes during the draft." - Fantasy Football Maximus
Sunday, March 31, 2013
Blocking in the draft
I figured I'd start off the inaugural post of Fantasy Football Gladiator with a relatively simple concept I am very surprised I haven't seen elsewhere. I call this "Blocking."
This is only available to certain positions in the draft, the couple spots after the first position and couple spots before the last position, but it is very powerful and can really screw the people on the ends. If you love to hear, "I wanted that guy!" and you're not watching daytime television, then this strategy is for you.
Let's say you're #9 in a 10 team draft, and it's your 5th round pick. You want to draft a QB and RB in your next two picks, but which one should you go for?
The answer lies in what the #10 team already has drafted, and which position he (or she) is more likely to pick. If Team 10 already has a QB, then you can be pretty sure another QB isn't on their queue for the round. Go ahead and safely pick your RB in Round 5, and save the QB for Round 6.
If Team 10 does not have a QB, but has 3 RB's, go ahead and grab the QB before Team 10 has a chance to pick, then get the RB in Round 6. If Team 10 seems likely to go either QB or RB with the pick, you'll need to make a judgment call, and guess which player you think is most likely to be taken.
You can also pull this off from the #3 or #8 position. Your guess is less likely to work, but when it does, the effects are a little better. If both teams after you have a TE, and you're debating between TE and WR, go ahead and take the WR before as many as 4 come off the board before it comes back around to you.
As you can see, this is only a draft-day strategy, and unless you're in some sort of dynasty league, you can't actually plan for this. It is always good to keep track of the teams' compositions, for this very reason.
Sadly, if you're on an end, you have no defense for this. Just make sure to maximize the value of every pick. Happy Headhunting!
This is only available to certain positions in the draft, the couple spots after the first position and couple spots before the last position, but it is very powerful and can really screw the people on the ends. If you love to hear, "I wanted that guy!" and you're not watching daytime television, then this strategy is for you.
Let's say you're #9 in a 10 team draft, and it's your 5th round pick. You want to draft a QB and RB in your next two picks, but which one should you go for?
The answer lies in what the #10 team already has drafted, and which position he (or she) is more likely to pick. If Team 10 already has a QB, then you can be pretty sure another QB isn't on their queue for the round. Go ahead and safely pick your RB in Round 5, and save the QB for Round 6.
If Team 10 does not have a QB, but has 3 RB's, go ahead and grab the QB before Team 10 has a chance to pick, then get the RB in Round 6. If Team 10 seems likely to go either QB or RB with the pick, you'll need to make a judgment call, and guess which player you think is most likely to be taken.
You can also pull this off from the #3 or #8 position. Your guess is less likely to work, but when it does, the effects are a little better. If both teams after you have a TE, and you're debating between TE and WR, go ahead and take the WR before as many as 4 come off the board before it comes back around to you.
As you can see, this is only a draft-day strategy, and unless you're in some sort of dynasty league, you can't actually plan for this. It is always good to keep track of the teams' compositions, for this very reason.
Sadly, if you're on an end, you have no defense for this. Just make sure to maximize the value of every pick. Happy Headhunting!
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